Friday Games

#12 Villanova v. #1 Kansas

Villanova became the second 12-seed I ever correctly predicted to make the Sweet 16. The other was Missouri in 2002, who went to the Elite 8. The Wildcats will not follow that pattern. They’re a solid team that can drag you into a physical game, and when Scottie Reynolds and Co. hit shots, you’re in trouble. But Kansas is too good across the board. Reynolds would be one of six or seven contributors on the Jayhawks instead of flying solo. If KU doesn’t make it to the Final Four from this region, Bill Self will have a lot of questions to answer. Rock, chalk, Jayhawks, 81-64.

#10 Davidson v. #3 Wisconsin

For about 25 minutes Sunday, the Davidson-Georgetown game went exactly how I suspected. The Hoyas’ perimeter players were suffocating Stephen Curry and, despite Jason Richards’ best efforts, no one else on the Wildcats could compensate. But during that second-half comeback, Curry was unbelievable. One personal 8-2 run included a backdoor cut for a three-point play, a ridiculous drive through four Hoyas, and finally a behind-the-back step-back 3-pointer from the top of the key. You can’t defend that. The Badgers, despite my best efforts to knock them out earlier, have survived on the back of their defense and rebounding. The latter may be the most important aspect of the game. Davidson needs guys like Lovedale, Meno, Sander, and Paulhus Gosselin to hold their own on the glass and limit Wisconsin’s second-chance points. Michael Flowers will be on Curry much of the night on the other end, but what can I say? On the year’s holiest weekend (for a Catholic), I became a believer. Davidson, 66-60.

#5 Michigan State v. #1 Memphis

You’ve got to hand it to Tom Izzo. The guy hasn’t had better than a 5-seed since 2001, and he’s made the Elite Eight as a 7 and the Final Four as a 5. I’m really surprised with how the Spartans dismantled Pitt (largely because I did not realize how good Kalin Lucas was), and I love Izzo in the coaching matchup with Calipari (who I think would rather his team win despite shooting free throws poorly than win easily with good FT shooting). Michigan State needs another banner effort from their guards, but I just get the feeling they won’t be able to keep up with the Tigers’ backcourt. Although I’ll admit that I’m more clueless on this game than on any other in this round. Memphis, 78-70.

#3 Stanford v. #2 Texas

The only other Sweet 16 matchup I correctly foresaw, and one that I’m very uncomfortable with who I picked (but I’ll try to justify it). The Longhorns are a lot like Marquette with their talented backcourt, but the Cardinal’s guards played well enough against the Golden Eagles (and in the case of Mitch “16-assist, 1-turnover against a pressure defense” Johnson, better than well enough). For Stanford to win, they need the Lopi to get Texas in some early foul trouble (this might be unfair, but I don’t like Connor Atchley’s chances on the block) and exploit Texas’ lack of depth. If they can do that and prevent D.J. Augustin or A.J. Abrams (how come we haven’t come up with a clever nickname for that duo) from lighting it up, I’ll stick…reluctantly…with the Cardinal, 74-73.