The Final Countdown

Well, 39-23 now (a.k.a. the same number of wins as Memphis at the end of the night?).

#1 Kansas v. #1 Memphis

There’s two ways to go with this game. First, the superstitious approach:

Three of the last six years, the team I have picked (before the Tournament) to lose in the finals has gone on to win (Maryland in ‘02, Syracuse in ‘03, UNC in ‘05). I picked Kansas to lose in the finals this year (to UCLA). So…Jayhawks, 78-72.

Second, the logical (and actual) approach:

This way is a lot more difficult. In terms of talent, you probably have to go with Kansas. They have guards big enough (i.e. taller than Augustin/Collison) to handle Memphis’ taller guard pressure and a sizable advantage in the frontcourt. On the other hand, those two guards the Tigers have shut down in the last two rounds are arguably the two best point guards in the country (outside of one, Derrick Rose). And the only thing the Jayhawks struggled with Saturday night was turnovers, something Memphis has forced in waves in this Tournament. And if Kansas can’t get the ball up the court, that neutralizes their interior advantages.

I think this game is lower scoring than you would expect. Teams tend to come out cold in the final (and neither of these teams is especially adept at the 3-point shot) and they are both excellent defensive teams that get out and guard you on the perimeter. Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts continue to shine on the national stage, and Kansas’ frontline backups (Kahn and Aldrich) won’t play as well as they did against UNC. And, I can’t believe I’m saying this, John Calipari and the Tigers hit enough free throws down the stretch to pull it out. Memphis, 73-67.

I’ll also be live-blogging the final, so check back in during the night. Prelude to a Championship is just 10 minutes away.