Gameday: Michigan

We weren’t supposed to be writing this post for another couple of weeks, but I guess we get a rough draft tonight.

THE CONTENTS: No. 10 Duke (4-0) battles Michigan (3-0) in the championship game of the 2K Sports Classic tonight at 7 p.m. at Madison Square Garden in New York City. You can see the game on ESPN2 with Dan Shulman and Dick Vitale (contrary to popular belief, Doris Burke has remained on the sidelines all tourney) or hear it on 620 AM.

THE EXPOSITION: The Blue Devils used a seven-point possession to blow open a close game in the final eight minutes and roll past Southern Illinois, 83-58, in last night’s semifinals.

The Wolverines, meanwhile, came back from a six-point halftime deficit to knock off No. 4 UCLA, 55-52, in the first big upset of the college basketball season.

Duke and Michigan have quite the series history, but one that was interrupted for several years while Tommy Amaker coached in Ann Arbor. It was restarted last season, with the Blue Devils cruising to a 95-67 win in Durham. The two will play again Dec. 6 in Ann Arbor.

THE PROTAGONISTS: A lot of things to like in that second half against Southern Illinois, particularly the play on the offensive end of Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler. During the huge spurt late, the two illustrated how good this offense can be when clicking.

The first half? Not so much. Henderson and Singler were scoreless, and Brian Zoubek and Jon Scheyer were basically the only Blue Devils doing anything besides turning it over. Duke totaled 15 turnovers in the first half on 38 possessions, a rate roughly equal to Jon Kitna’s interception percentage in the fourth quarter of the Lions’ Week 2 loss to Green Bay. Duke cut that number down to four in the second half, and despite my repeated questions about the Blue Devils’ halfcourt offense, they’ve managed to put up 165 points in the last two contests (just two shy of Texas Tech’s beyond jaw-dropping total last night). A lot of that is the excellent free-throw shooting, spearheaded last night by Lance Thomas.

On the other end of the floor, however, Duke did exactly what it needed to in shutting down Southern Illinois. The Salukis aren’t a great offensive team, and the Blue Devils exposed that with relatively strong interior defense from Zoubek and Co. (some lapses, but overall good) and strong perimeter pressure.

Tonight the question is: How long until Duke puts together a complete effort, where Henderson, Singler, and Scheyer are all on at the same time, and the offense is in full rhythm?

THE ANTAGONISTS: The stories are already being written that last night is the turning point in Ann Arbor for John Beilein and Co. The Wolverines, who struggled to a 10-22 mark in Beilein’s first season a year ago after several years as a bubble team, won their first game over a top-five opponent since 1997 when they upset–who else?–Duke.

It’s tough to come away from that game, however, as impressed with Michigan as you are unimpressed by UCLA. The fact of the matter is the Bruins were beaten by a middle-of-the-road team in a down year for a usually bad conference that wasn’t even playing its A game. (It also speaks volumes about the Pac-10, which might now be the worst BCS conference in the country one season after being arguably the best. It’s close right now between the Pac-10 and the WCC for supremacy on the left coast.)

That being said, it looks like Beilein has the players to hit key threes, run well-timed backcourts (who wasn’t impressed by the clinching backdoor to DeShawn Sims last night?), and run his 1-3-1 zone far more aggressively than he ever did at West Virginia. I can’t remember Beilein’s Mountaineer teams pressuring on the perimeter as much as the Wolverines did last night, and that might be a byproduct of having more athletes than he did in Morgantown.

And oh yeah, Manny Harris is basically a lock for First-Team Big Ten and a candidate for conference Player of the Year. He’s good.

THE CONFLICT: Duke’s halfcourt offense vs. Michigan’s 1-3-1 zone. One night after seeing Duke succeed in the halfcourt in the second half, we’ll see them tested by a different kind of defense. True, the Blue Devils put up 95 on Michigan’s zone last season, but the Wolverines now know the system and looked much more aggressive last night. And remember, Miami’s 2-3 matchup zone last season gave Duke a ton of trouble.

TIM’S FAVORITE PLAYER IN MICHIGAN HISTORY IS…: It’s really a no-brainer for me. Most people will go with Robert “Tractor” Traylor or Chris Webber or Juwan Howard, but to 6-year-old Tim, no college basketball player was cooler than Jalen Rose. Rose, who paid for the billboard up top, helped redefine the point guard position and was basically the antithesis to Bobby Hurley (who, somewhat paradoxically, Tim also loved at the time). More importantly, Rose and his teammates redefined basketball style for an entire generation: the long shorts and the black socks? I’m still rockin’ those.

MICHIGAN WILL PROVE TROUBLE IF…: They hit threes and create turnovers with their defense. There’s two ways the Wolverines can go in this game: (1) They can tire out, playing a top 10 team for the second consecutive night; or (2) They can get off to a hot start, build momentum, and ride it to a huge and unexpected early-season title that should move them into the top 20. I think we’ll know fairly early.

MICHIGAN WON’T PROVE TROUBLE IF…: They don’t shoot the ball well, and Henderson and Singler play the way they did in the second half. Otherwise, Duke is simply too talented.

THE DENOUEMENT: I see the Wolverines getting off to something like an 8-2 lead before Duke reclaims the advantage, leads by 4-6 at the break, and pulls away at the 10:00 mark. In short, much like last night, although not quite as extreme. Gerald Henderson leads the way and claims Tournament MVP in a tight battle with Kyle Singler. DUKE 84-66.