9:00 Hello friends, and welcome to Duke’s Central Campus for the first-ever National Championship LiveBlog, sure to become a tradition like none other. We’re getting the prerequisite “they’ve played their whole lives for these 40 minutes” intro, and it’s just not working. Jim Nantz refers to a “confluence of dreams and hopes” in San Antonio, and I’m already sick of him for the night.

CBS just jumped to commercial with “Cells” by The Servant, otherwise known as the theme from Sin City. Of course, they didn’t play the cool part of the song. And Greg, Clark, and Seth are in New York? Guess putting games online for free really is eating into CBS’ revenue.

So here’s the deal, I’m going to do the LiveBlog on the main page, and then transfer it over to the Final Live Blog page after the game in chronological order. And since I don’t know how to do a continuous thread, it’ll look choppy with each update being a new post. Sorry, but it’s the best I can do on short notice.

Well, 39-23 now (a.k.a. the same number of wins as Memphis at the end of the night?).

#1 Kansas v. #1 Memphis

There’s two ways to go with this game. First, the superstitious approach:

Three of the last six years, the team I have picked (before the Tournament) to lose in the finals has gone on to win (Maryland in ‘02, Syracuse in ‘03, UNC in ‘05). I picked Kansas to lose in the finals this year (to UCLA). So…Jayhawks, 78-72.

Second, the logical (and actual) approach:

This way is a lot more difficult. In terms of talent, you probably have to go with Kansas. They have guards big enough (i.e. taller than Augustin/Collison) to handle Memphis’ taller guard pressure and a sizable advantage in the frontcourt. On the other hand, those two guards the Tigers have shut down in the last two rounds are arguably the two best point guards in the country (outside of one, Derrick Rose). And the only thing the Jayhawks struggled with Saturday night was turnovers, something Memphis has forced in waves in this Tournament. And if Kansas can’t get the ball up the court, that neutralizes their interior advantages.

I think this game is lower scoring than you would expect. Teams tend to come out cold in the final (and neither of these teams is especially adept at the 3-point shot) and they are both excellent defensive teams that get out and guard you on the perimeter. Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts continue to shine on the national stage, and Kansas’ frontline backups (Kahn and Aldrich) won’t play as well as they did against UNC. And, I can’t believe I’m saying this, John Calipari and the Tigers hit enough free throws down the stretch to pull it out. Memphis, 73-67.

I’ll also be live-blogging the final, so check back in during the night. Prelude to a Championship is just 10 minutes away.

So I’m 38-22 this year so far. In other words, awesome.

North Carolina v. Kansas

Wow wow wow. There will be a lot of talent on the floor for this one. I’ve held that Kansas is the most talented team in the country: their top seven is insane (I mean, would any Duke starter crack that rotation? Maybe Henderson. MAYBE). But my one concern with the Jayhawks all year has been this: when you need a basket, who are you looking to? It’s a game-by-game deal with them, and I don’t think that cuts it in April. On the other side, there’s no question. I think it’s close, and I think one team knows what it’s doing in close games more than the other. UNC, 76-73.

Memphis v. UCLA

Like I said in the other post, when Memphis plays its best, I can’t envision them being beaten. I want to pick UCLA (they were my national champion all season), but look what the Tigers have done to some pretty good backcourts the last two games in Michigan State and Texas. For as much pub as Kevin Love gets, the Bruins’ most important player might be Darren Collison–their losses (and the blown lead against Western Kentucky) coincide with his poorer performances. Can Collison slow down Derrick Rose (he struggled a lot with Tyrone Brazelton), and will Rose and the Tigers’ taller guards prevent UCLA from getting into its offense? I don’t think the Bruins can answer both of those questions, and Joey Dorsey is playing well enough to negate Love inside. Memphis gets revenge from ‘06, 73-66.

A weak second weekend that saw the elimination of America’s most beloved college basketball team and player in a decade (since Gonzaga and Wally Szczerbiak each captured the nation’s imagination in 1999) also sets the stage for a potentially epic Final Four. I’m a little skeptical, mainly because Final Fours tend to be anticlimactic. Let’s look at the last few:

2007 — Florida continued its unimpressive run to the title (people talk about the Gators as one of the best teams of the last 20 years because, of course, they won back-to-back titles. BUT, Florida never dominated a regular season, and I wouldn’t take that team over ‘05 UNC or Illinois, ‘04 UConn, ‘01 Duke, ‘99 UConn or Duke, ‘96-’98 Kentucky, ‘91-’92 Duke, or ‘90-’91 UNLV. That’s 13 teams from the last 19 years. They were good, just not historically good.)

2006 — As bad a Final Four as I can remember, outside of rooting a lot for George Mason (so maybe they matched the Davidson excitement…my bad).

2005 — Some pretty ho-hum semifinals before a very good final between two phenomenal teams. The three championship games that really stand out in my mind (so since about ‘96) are UNC-Illinois, Duke-UConn, and Kentucky-Arizona.

2004 — The last truly great semifinal round with two incredible games. Georgia Tech-Oklahoma State was an excellent appetizer for the Duke-UConn showdown (you can say what you want about Duke choking that away, but UConn was the better team. Hands down.)

2003 — Forgettable semis (Kansas blew out Marquette in one of the most dominating Final Four routs ever and Syracuse beat Texas) before a pretty good final (the score was deceiving, as the ‘Cuse led almost throughout).

2002 – Neither semi was ever that close (Indiana-Oklahoma, Maryland-Kansas), and the final was as ugly as I’ve ever seen.

2001 – Duke-Maryland was an epic semifinal, and the title game did provide some suspense (and a LOT of future NBAers: Battier, Boozer, Dunleavy, Arenas, Jefferson, and I’m sure I’m forgetting someone else from Zona. This, of course, leaves out the two guys who really ran their teams [Jason Williams and Jason Gardner, both not in the league for...umm...different reasons]).

2000 — Quick, name the 2000 Final Four. Michigan State cruised past 8-seed Wisconsin while #5 Florida took care of another 8, North Carolina, before a foregone conclusion of a title game.

The point is, no Final Four since I can remember has provided us with three memorable games. And this year has the potential to do that. Before the Tournament, I picked UCLA and Kansas to be in the final, but you’d have to say those two are the underdogs going into tonight because of the way their opponents have played. Anything can happen, and there are reasons to love and hate both sides.

(Namely:

North Carolina

LOVE: Tyler Hansbrough. Gotta respect the work ethic.

HATE: Tyler Hansbrough. You know, other people try hard, too.

Kansas

LOVE: A team that shares the ball, puts aside its egos, and plays hard on both sides of the floor.

HATE: Bill Self has ruined your bracket so many times before (and don’t forget the time he got Tulsa to the Elite Eight as a 7-seed.)

Memphis

LOVE: When this team plays well…wow. I wasn’t old enough to remember UNLV in the early ’90s, but this is how I conceptualize them.

HATE: John Calipari is as insufferable a coach as any in the nation. I don’t blame John Chaney for threatening to kill him (maybe that’s a bit strong, but we all know Chaney was a little theatrical).

UCLA

LOVE: Ben Howland is probably the best coach without a championship right now (seriously), and this is an old-school team that plays fundamentally sound and gets out and guards you.

HATE: A Kevin Love-Tyler Hansbrough matchup in the finals would break the record for most slobbering comments made by broadcasters ever–that record, of course, was set back during Super Bowl XXXI (Packers over Patriots) by John Madden (and nearly tied by Tony Kornheiser during the Packers-Broncos OT MNF game this year…if it had extended beyond the first play of overtime, we’d've had a new champion).

#2 Texas v. #1 Memphis

I’ll be honest: I was going to pick Texas, thinking the Horns’ guards were quick enough to neutralize the Tigers’ size on the perimeter. But right now, Memphis is up 16, and Derrick Rose is dominating, and Billy Packer is saying Texas’ only chance is to penetrate and kick out for threes. In other words, things have been better for the Longhorns. I’m flip-flopping. Memphis, 82-70.

#10 Davidson v. #1 Kansas

This might be the last chance to prevent all four #1s from advancing to the Final Four (just two years after none made it and everyone talked about parity in college basketball). Everyone knows the Jayhawks are better: they have everything you’d want in a basketball team. They won’t have to worry about chasing Curry around screens because everyone on the perimeter can defend, so they’ll just switch screens. Plus, their guards are tall enough to constantly challenge Steph’s shots. In short, there’s no logical way Davidson should win this game. But if it’s tight late, you’ve got to think Bill Self will start feeling the heat of another Elite Eight meltdown. So all this makes it seem like I’m picking the Wildcats. But, like I said, there’s no logical reason to pick them, and I think KU escapes. Davidson fails to rock the chalk and the Jayhawks. Kansas, 78-69.

#3 Xavier v. #1 UCLA

Both these teams have lived dangerously the last few rounds, with the Bruins especially showing a lot of weaknesses in that second half against Western Kentucky. Tyrone Brazelton was too quick for Darren Collison–who had the same kind of struggles with Justin Dentmon when UCLA lost at Washington earlier this year–and was able to bring the Hilltoppers within four after being down 21. Drew Lavender, as good as he is, however, doesn’t pose the same type of threat once inside. He can’t finish like Brazelton (or Dentmon, for that matter) can. And I’m not sure how Xavier will handle Kevin Love on the interior. That being said, the Musketeers have the perimeter quickness to handle Russell Westbrook and Josh Shipp, and if Xavier hits its shots, they’ll be right there in the end. I’m sticking with my national champ, though. U-C…L-A, 71-64.

#3 Louisville v. #1 North Carolina

The only Regional Final I correctly predicted. Tough to say which of these teams was more impressive Thursday night in their dominant wins over Washington State and Tennessee, respectively. Unlike the Cougs, Louisville will push the pace and won’t mind playing Carolina’s speed. The Cardinals can’t, however, have the same turnover problems they had against Tennessee, or UNC will turn those into easy baskets and a big lead.

As for playing in North Carolina, I did a little research with the help of my buddy, Wikipedia. Since 1987 (I got tired of going back further), UNC has played 15 games in the Tar Heel State (tonight will be the 16th). They are 15-0. UNC was a #1 seed for all of those games and has beaten the following seeds: 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 8, 4, 4, 2. (In 1998, the Tar Heels beat a two-years-away 4-seed Michigan State and one-year-away 2-seed UConn en route to the Final Four). All I’m saying is, it’s not that impressive. UNC wins these games because they’re the better team, not because they’re playing in North Carolina–although it doesn’t hurt.

That being said, I’m sticking with my guns and picking Louisville. I don’t really know why. Terrence Williams will have an excellent game, the Cardinals will cut down on turnovers, they’ll hit threes, and they have enough athletic big guys to throw at Hansbrough in the post. The ‘Ville gets the ‘vin, 84-80.

Do I even have to? What a boring night of basketball. Even Davidson’s win was a yawner for the last 10 minutes. Well, here goes:

Davidson 73 — Wisconsin 56

Did this feel like an upset at any point in the game? Both teams hit their shots early, and then Wisconsin stopped hitting theirs, and that was it. And in case you weren’t swayed by the 70 points he dropped last weekend, Stephen Curry added 33 more, including a few more brilliant buckets: first, the pump-fake three in transition followed by the ridiculous reverse layup and one.

The best part about these two plays? When you watch them back-to-back, you realize on the layup that Curry slowed down for a second to make Michael Flowers think he was going to spot up for another three before blowing by him. Honestly, Curry can drop in 50 on Kansas and I wouldn’t be surprised.

Texas 82 — Stanford 62

I knew I shouldn’t have picked the Cardinal. Didn’t get to see much of this one, but I know Stanford cut it to one with about 10 minutes left and then was dominated. Memphis-Texas should be an excellent Regional Final.

Kansas 72 — Villanova 57

There’s just something about this Kansas team that, even when they’re shredding another team as they shredded Nova in the first half, I can’t buy into. They shot close to 80 percent for the game’s first 10 minutes, threw alley-oops to three different players, played lockdown defense, and yet, I don’t get a championship feeling from them. This is the highly subjective way of saying that while they’re probably the most talented team in the nation, I think they’re losing in the next 10 days.

Memphis 92 — Michigan State 74

Amid the myriad ways I envisioned this game going, Memphis up 30 at the half was not one of them. It is true that everyone has forgotten that the Tigers have only lost one game this season, that they were only seriously challenged in one other game, and that when they hit their shots, they’re probably unbeatable. It will be interesting to see if their taller guards can cause the same kind of havoc in the Longhorns’ backcourt Sunday.

#12 Villanova v. #1 Kansas

Villanova became the second 12-seed I ever correctly predicted to make the Sweet 16. The other was Missouri in 2002, who went to the Elite 8. The Wildcats will not follow that pattern. They’re a solid team that can drag you into a physical game, and when Scottie Reynolds and Co. hit shots, you’re in trouble. But Kansas is too good across the board. Reynolds would be one of six or seven contributors on the Jayhawks instead of flying solo. If KU doesn’t make it to the Final Four from this region, Bill Self will have a lot of questions to answer. Rock, chalk, Jayhawks, 81-64.

#10 Davidson v. #3 Wisconsin

For about 25 minutes Sunday, the Davidson-Georgetown game went exactly how I suspected. The Hoyas’ perimeter players were suffocating Stephen Curry and, despite Jason Richards’ best efforts, no one else on the Wildcats could compensate. But during that second-half comeback, Curry was unbelievable. One personal 8-2 run included a backdoor cut for a three-point play, a ridiculous drive through four Hoyas, and finally a behind-the-back step-back 3-pointer from the top of the key. You can’t defend that. The Badgers, despite my best efforts to knock them out earlier, have survived on the back of their defense and rebounding. The latter may be the most important aspect of the game. Davidson needs guys like Lovedale, Meno, Sander, and Paulhus Gosselin to hold their own on the glass and limit Wisconsin’s second-chance points. Michael Flowers will be on Curry much of the night on the other end, but what can I say? On the year’s holiest weekend (for a Catholic), I became a believer. Davidson, 66-60.

#5 Michigan State v. #1 Memphis

You’ve got to hand it to Tom Izzo. The guy hasn’t had better than a 5-seed since 2001, and he’s made the Elite Eight as a 7 and the Final Four as a 5. I’m really surprised with how the Spartans dismantled Pitt (largely because I did not realize how good Kalin Lucas was), and I love Izzo in the coaching matchup with Calipari (who I think would rather his team win despite shooting free throws poorly than win easily with good FT shooting). Michigan State needs another banner effort from their guards, but I just get the feeling they won’t be able to keep up with the Tigers’ backcourt. Although I’ll admit that I’m more clueless on this game than on any other in this round. Memphis, 78-70.

#3 Stanford v. #2 Texas

The only other Sweet 16 matchup I correctly foresaw, and one that I’m very uncomfortable with who I picked (but I’ll try to justify it). The Longhorns are a lot like Marquette with their talented backcourt, but the Cardinal’s guards played well enough against the Golden Eagles (and in the case of Mitch “16-assist, 1-turnover against a pressure defense” Johnson, better than well enough). For Stanford to win, they need the Lopi to get Texas in some early foul trouble (this might be unfair, but I don’t like Connor Atchley’s chances on the block) and exploit Texas’ lack of depth. If they can do that and prevent D.J. Augustin or A.J. Abrams (how come we haven’t come up with a clever nickname for that duo) from lighting it up, I’ll stick…reluctantly…with the Cardinal, 74-73.

North Carolina 68 — Washington State 47

What happened to my Cougs? The game didn’t stray too far from what I thought it would be (slower, UNC between 65 and 75), except for the fact that Wazzu couldn’t make anything. As much as I’d like to give credit to the Heels’ defense, the Cougars missed a lot of open looks during that 15-minute stretch bridging halftime when UNC took control. By the way, brilliant inbounds play drawn up by Roy Williams for the last shot of the half and Lawson’s killer three. Tip of the hat.

Xavier 79 — West Virginia 75

Oh, I feel so bad for Joe Alexander, who missed the potential game-winning free throw with 15 ticks left in regulation. B.J. Raymond hit two enormous 3-pointers in overtime, including one with 30 seconds left to beat the shot clock buzzer and put the Musketeers up four. Interesting that the Mountaineers got back in the game by borrowing some defensive principles from Huggins’ predecessor, John Beilein. The 1-3-1 matchup that Beilein employed (often not that well) really stifled Xavier and allowed WVU to get back in the game. Oh, and my call on Josh Duncan looks pretty good. For all the talk about Danny Green as a sixth man (and Green was terrific last night), Duncan may be the nation’s best.

Louisville 79 — Tennessee 60

I picked the Cardinals, but I didn’t expect them to cruise. They built an early lead, and although Tennessee got it down to seven (maybe a little closer), the Vols never seriously challenged Louisville. I must admit: I’ve talked a lot about David Padgett, but now I realize that Terrence Williams is their best player (I’m probably late on that bandwagon). The wrap-around-the-head pass he threw to Padgett last night for an open dunk is something you don’t see too many 6-foot-6 college players do. And was this Bruce Pearl’s last game in orange? (It was Chris Lofton’s, and man, wha’ happened?)

UCLA 88 — Western Kentucky 78

For the last two months or so, I’ve heard how Courtney Lee was the best player I didn’t know about. But it wasn’t until a week ago that I heard of Tyrone Brazelton. The same Tyrone Brazelton that scorched Drake for 30+ and the game-winning assist (a nice pass but not “one of the best plays ever” as Bob Knight ludicrously asserted), and the Tyrone Brazelton that utterly dominated the guy I thought was the nation’s best point guard in Darren Collison last night. When Collison fouled out with 5:40 to play, Bruins up only six, and Lee going to the line for three free throws, UCLA had to be a little nervous right. I was thinking of a Xavier-Western Kentucky Regional Final, and who would have the advantage, and what major job Darrin Horn would be offered. But the Bruins rebounded and showed some mettle down the stretch, and I can’t help but think this team is going to keep finding ways to win all the way to April 7.